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Introduction
’Bad beat’ is a term that can mean having an outstanding chance of winning a bet, only to still lose. The term can be used in any form of gambling but is most commonly applied to poker. Many poker rooms offer a progressive jackpot for very unlikely bad beats. Various other rules are added to ensure that only surprising bad beats win. Below I present tables of bad beat probabilities, starting with the most liberal rules, and ending with the most stringent. The most stringent rules, the ’Bad Beat Type 3’, are the most common, in my experience.
Following are the rules for a type 1 bad beat.
The odds of getting dealt five cards, no community, no draw, no nothing, are about 1:4,000. In Texas Hold ’Em, the odds of a four of a kind on the flop are 1:4,000 More odds: Royal Flush 1:650,000. This is calculated by taking the 13 quads of each rank multiplied by the number of extra cards which can be the fifth card in the hand. There are a total of 2598960 5 card hands, so four of a kind.
*Both the bad beat and winning hand must be the best possible combination of five cards. In cases where the same hand can be created multiple ways (for example player has AK and the board shows AAKKQ) the player’s hole cards will take priority.
*Both the bad beat and winning hand must make use of both hole cards.
*A full house must be beaten by a four of a kind or higher.
The rules for a type 2 bad beat are the same as type 1, plus any four of a kind, whether the bad beat hand or winning hand, must contain a pocket pair.
The following tables provide various probabilities and odds for many of the common events in a game of Texas hold ’em. Odds% Example Win% 330-to-1 0.30% JJ v 77 80% v 20%. Playing poker is about playing the odds. The following list gives the odds for outcomes in Texas Hold’em hands. When you realize how heavily the odds are stacked against you, you may want to rethink going all-in before the flop with two suited cards. Use the odds to your advantage: 1 percent (1-in-100): Percentage of.
The rules for a type 3 bad beat are the same as type 2, plus a full house may not make use of a three of a kind entirely on the board.
In my experience, is the most common format for bad beat rules is type 3. The additional rule for type 3 makes very little difference, compared to type 2.
The following table shows the probability of each bad beat hand under all three types of rules. The table is based on a ten-player game in which nobody ever folds. The probabilities are for any pair of players meeting the qualifying rules. If you want to know YOUR probability of winning, you should divide the probability in the table by 10. River cree casino poker tournament schedule of events.Bad Beat ProbabilitiesBad Beat HandType 1Type 2Type 3Any full house0.002033290.000503050.00049508Full house, three 3’s or higher0.001895120.000469780.00046204Full house, three 4’s or higher0.001751590.000434440.00042728Full house, three 5’s or higher0.001603330.000397060.00039028Full house, three 6’s or higher0.001449650.000357410.00035145Full house, three 7’s or higher0.00129360.000317670.00031266Full house, three 8’s or higher0.001134920.000277750.00027355Full house, three 9’s or higher0.000973790.000237720.00023445Full house, three T’s or higher0.000811130.000197590.00019503Full house, three J’s or higher0.000647630.000157080.00015509Full house, three Q’s or higher0.000485330.000118380.00011682Full house, three K’s or higher0.000325610.000081300.00008033Full house, three A’s or higher0.000169640.000046080.00004579Full house, aces full of 3’s or higher0.000160040.000043500.00004322Full house, aces full of 4’s or higher0.000149860.000040800.00004052Full house, aces full of 5’s or higher0.000138980.000037970.00003763Full house, aces full of 6’s or higher0.000127490.000035040.00003469Full house, aces full of 7’s or higher0.000115800.000032330.00003203Full house, aces full of 8’s or higher0.000103470.000029570.00002925Full house, aces full of 9’s or higher0.000090670.000026730.00002645Full house, aces full of T’s or higher0.000077140.000023830.00002359Full house, aces full of J’s or higher0.000062860.000020640.0000204Full house, aces full of Q’s or higher0.000047930.000017380.00001721Full house, aces full of K’s or higher0.000032300.000014080.00001402Any four of a kind0.000016010.000010860.00001081Four 3’s or higher0.000014370.000009960.00000992Four 4’s or higher0.00001270.000009000.00000902Four 5’s or higher0.000010990.000008050.00000804Four 6’s or higher0.000009340.000007050.00000707Four 7’s or higher0.00000780.000006130.00000611Four 8’s or higher0.00000640.000005250.00000519Four 9’s or higher0.000005190.000004390.00000435Four T’s or higher0.000004140.000003590.00000357Four J’s or higher0.000003170.000002870.00000285Four Q’s or higher0.000002460.000002260.00000224Four K’s or higher0.000001930.000001800.00000179Four A’s or higher0.000001570.000001490.00000147Any straight flush0.00000120.000001220.00000121Straight flush 6 high or higher0.000001050.000001070.00000105Straight flush 7 high or higher0.000000890.000000910.00000090Straight flush 8 high or higher0.000000730.000000740.00000074Straight flush 9 high or higher0.000000560.000000590.00000058Straight flush T high or higher0.000000410.000000430.00000042Straight flush J high or higher0.000000280.000000270.00000027Straight flush Q high or higher0.000000120.000000120.00000012Methodology
The above tables are the result of random simulations of about 2.5 billion rounds each.Further Reading
The video poker variant World Series of Poker - Final Table Bonus features a bad beat jackpot. Free no deposit casino bonus 2019. See my section on that game for more information.
Brian Alspach has a very good page on Texas Hold’em, including a section on the Bad Beat Jackpot at Party Poker.

Written by: Michael ShacklefordacejackjbWhat are the exact odds of making any four of a kind versus any two,three,four or one specific four of a kind, holding a pocket pair in Texas Holdem?buzzpaff16.473429acejackjbI believe you gave me the odds of holding a pocket pair. What are the odds of making four of a kind?buzzpaff.00327acejackjbChances Of 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem RulesThanks, would it be correct to say that .00327* number of players* hands dealt=probability of someone hitting four of a kind?buzzpaffChances Of 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem GameNo it would not. Was hoping someone would challenge my answer. I have absolutely no idea !acejackjbI believe you are very close!buzzpaffYou are new here or you would know I just make up numbers. ME, I am not. SIGHChances Of 4 Of A Kind In Texas Holdem Card GameNareedHas anyone else noticed a pattern where a new user, with a handle all in lower case, asks a very specific question on a topic, comments on replies, and then is never heard from again?
Not that I mind. But if it’s just one person, there’s no need for the multiple identities.dwheatleyWhat Are The Odds Of Flopping 4 Of A Kind In Texas HoldemIt looks like the probability of being dealt a pocket pair (0.0588) then getting 4 of kind in the next 5 cards (0.00816) is about 0.00048, or 1 in 2083.
You can estimate the probability of anyone getting 4 of kind using your formula, but I don’t think it’s exactly correctWisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
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